A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
