Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
